Market Close - 06/04/2026
📊 B3 Panorama - Closing and Post-Holiday Perspectives (04/06/2026)
As B3 remained closed this Thursday due to the Corpus Christi holiday, we consolidated the critical scenario of the last trading session (03/06) and the main international drivers that will dictate the opening of business this Friday.
📈 Summary of the Last Active Trading Session (03/06/2026)
The Ibovespa suffered a strong reversal on the eve of the holiday, erasing recent technical gains and plummeting to its lowest closing level since January, reflecting strong global risk aversion and trade pressures coming from Washington.
- Ibovespa: ▼ -2.03% (170,668.00 points)
- Commercial Dollar: ▲ +1.14% (quoted at R$ 5.0668 — highest close since April)
- Financial Volume: R$ 26.8 billion
🔍 Main Drivers and Facts to Watch
1. Military Escalation in the Middle East
Geopolitical tensions exploded after American forces attacked facilities on the Iranian island of Qeshm, alleging a breach of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated with missile attacks against the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. The direct conflict caused Brent Crude to jump to US$ 97.81 (up 1.89%), flirting with the US$ 100 barrier and reigniting global inflationary fears that impact Petrobras (PETR4).
2. US Tariffs against Brazil
The trade environment soured after the US included Brazil on a list of restrictions alleging flaws in the monitoring of production chains (forced labor), proposing an extra tariff surcharge of 12.5%. The measure punished the steel sector in the last session, with CSN (CSNA3) plummeting 6.70%.
3. Future Interest Rates and Selic Projection at 14.00%
Reflecting the pressured IPCA-15 and global commodity stress, XP Investimentos revised its projection for the terminal Selic rate for 2026 to 14.00% per year (with IPCA at 5.3%). The sharp steepening of the yield curve (DI Jan/31 at 14.13%) crushed the retail, consumer, and civil construction sectors.
4. Passive Income and June Flow
As it is the beginning of the month, the flow of local investors remains focused on the round of dividend and earnings announcements from the end of May for Real Estate Funds (FIIs) and Fiagros, which act as a liquidity cushion for short-term portfolios (Cash Generation).
🚀 Dynamics of Main Assets
| Asset | Trend | Technical Context |
|---|---|---|
| Suzano (SUZB3) | ▲ +1.21% | Benefited by the flow of foreign exchange protection and the surge of the dollar to R$ 5.06. |
| Raízen (RAIZ4) | ▲ +5.26% | Isolated upside highlight due to restoration of operating margins. |
| CSN (CSNA3) | ▼ -6.70% | Largest drop in the index, giving back the previous rally due to new American tariffs. |
| Vale (VALE3) | ▼ Drop | Pressured by global aversion and rotation of foreign investor flow. |
📌 Monitoring for Tomorrow's Opening (05/06)
- New York (Wall Street): Monitor the closing behavior of the S&P 500 and the accommodation of 10-year Treasuries today to assess the size of the arbitrage of Brazilian ADRs (such as VALE and PBR).
- Commodities in Asia: The behavior of iron ore in Dalian and the price of Brent crude this dawn will dictate the support strength of the Ibovespa in the 170k range.